Poll results suggest SA is moving to post-racial politics – IRR

The potential emergence of a politics defined by socio-economic concerns rather than identity-based grievance is one of the standout features of the latest polling by the Institute of Race Relations.

A key indicator of a move beyond traditional voting patterns is the finding that the Democratic Alliance’s support among black registered voters has more than tripled – from 5% to 18%.

For the first time in IRR polling, the DA (30.3%) edges past the ANC (29.7%).

The first of three reports on the survey results on South African voter sentiment is published today (link below). The second report will explore detailed policy preferences and priorities, while the third will assess the state of race relations in the country.

Hermann Pretorius, IRR Head of Strategic Communications and author of the reports, argues that a key factor behind the DA’s surpassing the ANC for the first time in IRR polling history is long-simmering dissatisfaction with ANC socio-economic policies, accelerated and inflamed by the recent parliamentary contest over a proposed VAT increase.

Says Pretorius: “This poll was conducted at a unique moment when politics was disrupted by the charged, race-neutral, and socio-economic question of how much VAT ordinary people should pay. This timing affects our poll findings in two ways: firstly, it means the findings are subject to the moment of seeing a high-tax/low-tax choice define the public’s political judgement; secondly, it paints a vivid picture of the type of political debate that could, if sustained, fundamentally redraw our political landscape.

“Effectively, this means that if the political focus moves elsewhere and does not return substantially to the terrain of basic socio-economic policy questions, this poll might be remembered only as a snapshot of a short-lived alternative political reality.

“But if the VAT issue marks the start of a new political focus on basic socio-economic policies, questions relating to bread-and-butter issues, these findings could well stand as the first major sign of previously unthinkable shifts in voting patterns that bring lasting change to the political landscape.”

Pretorius concludes: “It’s notable that the DA’s increase in support from black registered voters stems from a clear focus on race-neutral socio-economic policy, not from any race-based messaging. This exposes as a lie the long-held narrative that South African voters are driven primarily by racial identity.”

Read the full report here, and watch the webinar here.  

Media contact: Hermann Pretorius IRR Head of Strategic Communications Tel: 079 875 4290 Email: hermann@irr.org.za

Media enquiries: Michael Morris Tel: 066 302 1968 Email: michael@irr.org.za