Crime is both down and up – and the state is NOT the primary policeman

Though traumatised by crime – illustrated earlier this week by the release of the latest crime statistics – South African society can take some comfort in the long-term trajectory.

This is evident from the data presented in the Crime and Security chapter of the South Africa Survey 2023, the annual statistical yearbook produced by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR).

Official data does show that, in some respects, there has been a significant improvement in crime trends over the last 28 years. Across the 20 most serious crimes monitored (these include both violent and non-violent crimes), the overall rate has fallen from 5 204 per 100 000 in 1994/95 to 2 791 per 100 000 in 2021/22 (the last full year available for the Survey). This represents a drop of 46.4%.

Over this period, the incidence of murder fell from 67 to 42 per 100 000.

Much of this can be attributed to the decline of violent political conflict following the political transition – although little-remembered now, this was an enormously important dividend of democracy.

However, viewed in the shorter term, the failure of crime prevention and the impact of stressed social circumstances become apparent. In 2019/2020, the murder rate stood at 36 per 100 000, dropping to 33 in 2020/21 and then rising again to 42 in 2021/22.

In 2021/22, there were 25 181 cases of murder in the country. This was the highest number recorded since 1995/95, when there were 26 877 murders.

According to the most recent data, South Africa experienced 6 289 murders between January and March this year. Added to the information in previous reports, this brings the number of people murdered in the country in the 2022/23 period to 27 272. This is an increase of over 2 000 since the 2021/22 period, continuing both the upward trend and representing the largest annual tally of murders since 1994.

Meanwhile, the police are under-capacitated, and ever more households and businesses are turning to private security for protection. This can be seen in the huge disparities between people per police officer at 429:1, compared to the people-per-private-security-officer ratio of 103:1.

The Survey presents an overview of South Africa, organised around 14 themes, with time series data going back decades and a large number of international comparisons. Unique in its scope and reputation, it is the definitive dispassionate account of the complex society that is South Africa.

To order a hard copy of the Survey or watch a recording of the online launch, visit the IRR’s website.

Media contacts: Makone Maja, Centre for Risk Analysis analyst Tel: +27 79 418 6676 Email: makone@cra-sa.com

Terence Corrigan, IRR Projects and Publications Manager Tel: +2766-470-4456 Email: terence@irr.org.za

Media enquiries: Michael Morris Tel: 066 302 1968 Email: michael@irr.org.za 

Sinalo Thuku, Tel: 073 932 8506 Email: sinalo@irr.org.za