Katzenellenbogen: SA declares neutrality; China steals Waterkloof defence show - Biznews

At the recent Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) show, South Africa appeared to favour China over the US, sparking diplomatic tension. The US withdrew its participation after a delayed diplomatic guarantee, giving China the spotlight with its Xi’an Y-20 and other defence assets. This move reflects South Africa’s shifting alliances toward BRICS partners, especially China, as the US and Europe lose influence in the African defence market.

Jonathan Katzenellenbogen

Until last week, during Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) shows, our premier defence industry trade exhibition held every two years, the US parked one of its enormous strategic airlift cargo planes, a C-17 Globemaster, near the entrance to Air Force Base Waterkloof.

The tail section with a gigantic US flag towered over all the other parked aircraft and buildings at the base.

Along with the C-17, the US Air Force always brought a lot of kit to the show. Two years ago it used the C-17 to fly out its MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle, which was widely used in Afghanistan, and a Sikorsky HH-60 Pave Hawk medium lift helicopter. Separately, it flew out a Lockheed Martin C-130J Super Hercules, the transport workhorse of its fleet, and a Boeing KC-46 aircraft for air refuelling. By any reckoning that is a lot of kit to bring to an air show.

The US Air Force also brought out a band, which gave regular concerts during the five days of the show.

Good friends
This was a message to us and the world that the US wanted to be good friends with South Africa. It was also a message from the US that it can, if need be, get here with great ease and bring a lot.

At the Waterkloof show last week there was no official US presence, due to either “sabotage or incompetence,” as the DA said in a statement. The US was snubbed by South Africa and withdrew from the show. This could have been to give China pride of place at the show.

The place where the US Air Force’s C-17 was parked during past shows was taken up by a People Liberation Army Air Force Xi’an Y-20, China’s large jet powered military transport. The Y-20 first flew last year and having this sort of capability is something the country would be keen to show the world. It is not as large as the C-17, but its tail with a large Chinese flag could still be viewed from far across the base.

Parked next to the Y-20 was the Brazilian Air Forces’ Embraer C-390, a smaller military jet transporter.

President Cyril Ramaphosa visited both aircraft at the show and was photographed sitting in the cockpit of the Embraer transporter. That’s a double thumbs up for our fellow members of the BRICS grouping.

As much as they are about sales, defence shows are also about military diplomacy. It is those who want to be friends who come and display their wares at the national shows, which are held almost across the world. And this year China upstaged all the exhibitors at Waterkloof.

The US had been snubbed, and China has taken home the award for the biggest and best at the show.

Guarantee
Although reportedly reminded by the US, our defence minister, Angie Motshekga, declined to guarantee the application of the 1999 Status of Forces Agreement that ensures military forces are afforded diplomatic immunity and privileges. The US and most countries require such a guarantee to come to the show. The Minister was informed by the US that it would not attend if the guarantee was not signed.

Only in early September when the US said it would not attend the show, did Motshekga then sign the guarantee. It was all too late then as it takes some preparation to airlift kit to the show. So, the Minister could claim that she did sign the guarantee giving her diplomatic cover, as she had done what the US wanted.

That was an underhanded snub. Had South Africa not wanted to snub the US it would have signed the guarantee at the first opportunity. After almost three years of deep differences and a strong lean by South Africa toward Russia and China, the Minister might have made the extra effort to ensure the path was clear to the US attending.

Last week our foreign minister, Ronald Lamola, was in Washington DC to try and sweet talk the US. That cannot have worked after the snub.

Was the snub all due to lack of co-ordination or a possible clash between the foreign affairs and defence departments?

Unlikely
That is unlikely, it was more probably the case that South Africa thought it could get away with this and show its anti-US credentials to China and others.

That is a horribly distorted view of the world.

If there is any US administration that is favourably disposed to South Africa, for at least historical reasons, and accepting of our push for a foreign policy not centred on the West, it is the Biden administration. The Biden administration is not out for a fight with us as we are not all that important to make it worthwhile, and have not done anything sufficiently egregious to warrant a clash.

There must be a feeling in Washington that South Africa can at least treat us with a degree of respect.

China used the show to advantage as its African stage last week.

Apart from the Y-20, it also showed its Changhe Z-10ME attack helicopter and the capabilities of its defence giants. Chinese companies now make up a quarter of US publication DefenseNews’ list of the world’s largest defence systems. Second to South Africa, Chinese defence companies, large and small, took up the most floor space.

Message
The largest companies appear to have been at Waterkloof to show their presence and diverse capabilities, rather than demonstrate what they can do to meet the specific needs of African armies. The message was that China can provide any defence system it needs. The colour brochure from Poly Technologies runs to 130 pages and shows the company’s capabilities across air defence, precision strike, electronic warfare, military vehicles, aircraft, unmanned aerial systems, naval systems, public security and counter-terrorism.

The US was excluded from the show, but western companies have shown a declining interest in the Waterkloof show for some years. There was a small presence of US companies, who seem to have left it to their local agents to represent their technology at the show. Many of the European giants like SAAB and BAE Systems were hardly visible.

South Africa and Africa are no longer a priority market for the US and European defence companies. We just do not have the money. They have essentially left the market for the Chinese, Turks and to a lesser extent the Brazilians, Indians and Russians.

That might have been part of the rationale for South Africa’s snub of the US. That might make the ANC feel good and give advantages to China, but it hardly is to our advantage or something that proves our neutrality.

Jonathan Katzenellenbogen is a Johannesburg-based freelance journalist

https://www.biznews.com/rational-perspective/2024/09/25/katzenellenbogen-sa-neutrality-china

This article was first published on the Daily Friend.