ANC Election Performance: 1994-2014

A look at the ANC's national and provincial election performance sine 1994.

TABLE 1: ANC National and Provincial Election Performance: 1994-2014

All numbers are drawn from the IEC website: www.elections.org.za. The national numbers [blue] are drawn from the national ballot and the provincial numbers from the provincial ballot. Green indicates increase in support. Orange indicates decline in support.

 

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

Percentage

Votes

Percentage

Votes

Percentage

Votes

Percentage

Votes

Percentage

Votes

National

62.65%

12,237,655

66.35%

10,601,330

69.69%

10,880,915

65.90%

11,650,748

62.15%

11,436,921

Eastern Cape

84.35%

2,453,790

73.80%

1,606,856

79.27%

1,768,987

68.82%

1,552,676

70.09%

1,528,345

Mpumalanga

80.69%

1,070,052

84.86%

958,504

86.30%

959,436

85.55%

1,110,190

78.23%

1,045,409

KwaZulu-Natal

32.23%

1,181,118

39.38%

1,167,094

46.98%

1,287,823

62.95%

2,192,516

64.52%

2,475,041

Northern Cape

49.74%

200,839

64.32%

210,837

68.83%

219,365

60.75%

245,699

64.40%

272,053

Limpopo

91.63%

1,759,597

88.29%

1,464,432

89.18%

1,439,853

84.88%

1,265,631

78.60%

1,149,348

North West

83.33%

1,310,080

78.97%

1,030,901

80.71%

1,048,089

72.89%

783,794

67.39%

733,490

Free State

76.65%

1,037,998

80.79%

881,381

81.78%

827,338

71.10%

734,688

69.85%

708,720

Gauteng

57.60%

2,418,257

67.85%

2,485,064

68.40%

2,331,121

64.04%

2,662,013

53.59%

2,348,564

Western Cape

33.01%

705,576

42.07%

668,106

45.25%

709,052

31.55%

620,918

32.89%

697,664

A number of trends are discernible

  • Support for the party in KwaZulu-Natal, particularly in the 2009 election and consolidated in 2014, has grown exponentially and consistently, from 32.2% or 1.1m votes in 1994 to 64.5% or 2.4m votes in 2014. As a percentage of all ANC support, KwaZulu-Natal has grown from representing 9.6% of all ANC support in 1994, to representing 21.6% of all support in 2014. In terms of absolute votes, on the provincial ballot, it’s the party’s largest stronghold. For more on KwaZulu-Natal, see Table 8.
  • Three provinces stand out as distinctive when it comes to systematic decline in ANC support: Limpopo (down from 91.6% or 1.7m votes in 1994 to 78.6% or 1.1m votes in 2014); the North West (down from 83.3% or 1.3m votes to 67% or 733,490 votes) and the Free State (down from 76.6% or 1m votes to 69.8% or 708,720 votes). For more on Limpopo and the North West, see Tables 9 and 10 respectively.
  • In these three provinces, between 1994 and 2014, the party has lost 1,516,117 votes. In KwaZulu-Natal, over the same period, the party has gained 1,293,923 votes. This largely accounts for the ANC’s general stability between 62% and 66% over the last 24 years.
  • While the ANC’s support in Gauteng has remained stable in absolute numbers – suggesting a core base that is largely unshakable – the growth in the number of registered voters has seen its percentage of the vote decline, from 68.4% in 2004, to 53.6% in 2014. This suggests the party unable to win over new voters in that province.
  • Three primary ANC goals in the upcoming election will thus be: (a) Stabilise and potentially reverse the decline in support in provinces like Limpopo and the North West. (b) Retain existing support in KwaZulu-Natal, built on the back of Jacob Zuma and now under threat after his departure. (c) Register new ANC voters in Gauteng, in order to renew and replenish its core support base, to retain its 50% majority and to nullify in further gains on the part of the opposition.

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