The Economy

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The Economy

Below follows the detailed contents of this chapter. Page numbers refer to the hard copy edition of the Survey.

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The Economy.jpgMACRO-ECONOMIC PICTURE........................................................................................ 85

South Africa at a glance........................................................................... 85

LEADING INDICATORS....................................................................................................... 86

Local indicators................................................................................................................. 86

Major indicators, 1955–2008.................................................................. 86

Current account surplus/deficit as proportion of GDP,
 1955–2008.............................................................................................. 87

Further major indicators, 1993–2009.................................................... 88

Key indicators and forecasts, 2005–11................................................. 88

International comparisons.............................................................................................. 89

Key economic indicators and forecasts, selected countries............... 89

Spending, savings, and trade as proportion of GDP,
 selected countries, 2007........................................................................ 90

ECONOMIC PROFILE.......................................................................................................... 91

Gross domestic product.................................................................................................... 91

Real growth and income levels and trends, 1961–2008..................... 91

Real total gross domestic product, 1961–2008.................................... 92

Real annual economic growth, 1961–2008.......................................... 93

Real GDP and personal disposable income per capita,
 1961–2008.............................................................................................. 93

Real GDP per head, 1965–2008.............................................................. 94

Gross national income per capita, selected countries, 2007............... 94

Income and rankings, selected countries, 2007.................................... 95

Gross national income per capita, 2007, using purchasing
 power parity, selected countries.......................................................... 96

GDP per capita average annual growth, 1990–2005.......................... 96

Structure of GDP........................................................................................................... 97

Breakdown of gross value added by industry (proportions),
 1951–2008.............................................................................................. 97

Breakdown of gross value added by industry, 1951 and 2008...... 100

Provincial and local economies................................................................................ 101

Provincial economies..................................................................................... 101

Gross domestic product (GDP) by province, 2006–2011................. 101

GDP per head by province, 1996–2008.............................................. 101

Regional GDP by province and industry (actual numbers),
 2007....................................................................................................... 102

Regional GDP by province and industry, 2007 (proportions).......... 103

Regional GDP and GDP growth, 2007................................................. 108

Average annual economic growth, 1996–2007................................. 108

Economic growth of urban areas................................................................ 109

Economic indicators for 19 major urban areas................................. 109

Inflation and interest rates............................................................................................ 111

Inflation and interest rates, 1976–2008.............................................. 111

Inflation rates, 1976–2008.................................................................... 112

Interest rates, 1976–2008...................................................................... 112

CPI headline, 2009.................................................................................. 113

Components of CPI, 2009..................................................................... 114

CPI by province and area, 2009........................................................... 114

Group and product inflation for all urban areas, 2009..................... 115

Repurchase (repo) rate, dates of change............................................. 117

Saving................................................................................................................................. 118

Personal saving, household debt, and gross domestic
 saving, 1960–2008.............................................................................. 118

Gross domestic saving, 1960–2008...................................................... 119

Investment......................................................................................................................... 120

Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), 1960–2008.................. 120

Investment (GFCF) as a proportion of GDP, 1960–2008................ 121

Annual increase/decrease in investment, 1960–2008...................... 122

Investment by type of investment, 1998–2008................................ 122

Investment by type of investment (proportions), 1998 and 2008. 123

Investment by type of investor, 1960–2008...................................... 123

Private investment as proportion of total investment,
 1960–2008........................................................................................... 125

GFCF by kind of economic activity, 1960–2008.............................. 126

Foreign investment..................................................................................................... 126

Inward investment............................................................................................... 126

Foreign liabilities (foreign investment in South Africa),
 1956–2005........................................................................................... 126

Foreign liabilities (foreign investment in South Africa),
 1996–2007........................................................................................... 127

Foreign direct investment inflows, 1994–2008.................................. 127

Foreign liabilities (foreign investment in South Africa)
 by region at 31 December 2007........................................................ 128

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in South Africa by kind of
 economic activity as a proportion of total foreign direct
 investment, 1997 and 2007............................................................... 129

Outward investment............................................................................................. 129

Foreign assets (South African investment in other
 countries), 1975–2007........................................................................ 129

South Africa’s foreign assets by region at 31 December 2007........ 130

International comparisons.................................................................................. 131

FDI flows (inward) as proportion of GFCF,
 selected countries, 2005–2007.......................................................... 131

FDI stock as proportion of GDP, selected countries, 1990–2007... 132

The exchange rate........................................................................................................... 133

The rand/euro and rand/pound exchange rate,
 1990–2008........................................................................................... 133

The value of the rand in euros and pounds, 1990–2008................. 133

The rand/dollar and real effective exchange rates, 1970–2008..... 134

The value of the rand in dollars, 1970–2008..................................... 135

Weighting of 13 currencies in the ‘basket’ against which
 the rand is measured........................................................................... 136

Trade.................................................................................................................................. 136

South Africa’s chief trading partners, 2008........................................ 136

South Africa’s trade with the world, 2008........................................... 137

Imports to South Africa, 2008 (proportions)...................................... 138

Exports from South Africa, 2008 (proportions)................................. 138

Structure of exports and imports, 1990–2008................................... 139

Exports from South Africa, 1990–2008 (proportions)..................... 140

Imports to South Africa, 1990–2008 (proportions).......................... 140

Growth in export and import value, 1990–2007............................... 141

Growth in real value of exports, 1960–2004...................................... 142

Exports of goods and services as a proportion of GDP,
 selected countries, 1995 and 2007................................................... 142

Average London gold price, 1946–2008............................................. 143

Brent crude oil and platinum prices, 1981–2008............................... 145

Oil price, 1981–2008............................................................................... 146

PUBLIC FINANCE................................................................................................................ 146

Revenue and taxation..................................................................................................... 146

All tax revenues........................................................................................................... 146

Total tax revenue, 2002/03–2007/08.................................................. 146

National revenues....................................................................................................... 147

Government finance as a proportion of GDP, 1976–2012.............. 147

Income tax as a proportion of GDP, 1976–2012.............................. 148

Composition of national tax revenue, selected years,
 1984/85–2009/10............................................................................... 148

Tax revenue by main source, 1994/95 and 2007/08........................ 149

Tax revenue by main source as proportion of GDP,
 1994/95 and 2007/08......................................................................... 149

Number of registered taxpayers, 2002/03–2007/08......................... 150

Maximum marginal tax rates, 2002/03–2007/08............................. 150

Individual taxpayers............................................................................................ 151

Number of taxpayers, 2002/03–2007/08........................................... 151

Summary of taxable income and tax assessed, 2002/03–
 2005/06................................................................................................. 151

Taxable income and tax assessed by income group
 (numbers), 2003 and 2006................................................................ 152

Taxable income and tax assessed by income group
 (proportions), 2003 and 2006........................................................... 153

Taxable income and tax assessed by age group, and sex,
 2003 and 2006..................................................................................... 154

Tax assessed by economic activity, 2003 and 2006........................ 155

Tax assessed by source of income (proportion of total),
 2003–2006........................................................................................... 156

Taxable income and tax assessed by province, 2003 and 2006.... 157

Corporate taxpayers............................................................................................ 158

Taxable income and tax assessed by sector and economic
 activity, 2003 and 2006..................................................................... 158

Tax assessments, 2002/03–2007/08................................................... 160

Provincial and local revenues................................................................................... 160

Provincial and local government tax revenue, 2002/03–2007/08. 160

International comparisons........................................................................................ 161

Top personal income tax rates, selected countries, 1980–2006..... 161

Tax revenue, 2007, and business tax, selected countries,
 2007 and 2008..................................................................................... 162

Marginal tax rate, selected countries, 2006–08................................. 163

Budget 2008/2009............................................................................................................ 164

Breakdown of consolidated national and provincial
 spending by function and proportion.............................................. 164

Changes in consolidated national and provincial
 spending by function over seven years........................................... 165

Breakdown of consolidated national and provincial
 spending as a proportion of total spending..................................... 166

Key allocations as proportions of the budget, 2005/06–2011/12.. 167

Major spending components................................................................. 167

Major spending components, 2005/06 and 2009/10
 (proportions)......................................................................................... 168

Public sector infrastructure expenditure and estimates,
 2005/06–2011/12............................................................................... 168

Key indicators and forecasts, 2005–11............................................... 169

Division of revenue between spheres of government,
 2008/09–2011/12............................................................................... 169

Deficit............................................................................................................................ 170

Budget deficit/surplus (actual and projected), 1995/96–2011/12. 170

Budget balance as a proportion of GDP, selected countries,
 2009....................................................................................................... 171

Public debt.................................................................................................................... 172

Total debt of government, 1982–2012............................................... 172

Foreign debt as proportion of GDP, 1982–2012................................ 173

Government debt as proportion of GDP, 1982–2012....................... 173

Provincial budgets........................................................................................................... 174

Consolidated budgets................................................................................................. 174

Summary of expenditure outcomes by province,
 2007/08–2008/09............................................................................... 174

Provincial own revenue collection, 2007/08–2008/09..................... 174

Provincial personnel expenditure, 2008/09......................................... 175

Provincial education expenditure, 2008/09........................................ 175

Provincial capital expenditure on education, 2008/09..................... 176

Provincial health expenditure, 2008/09............................................... 176

Provincial capital expenditure on health, 2008/09............................ 177

Provincial capital expenditure on health growth,
 2007/08–2008/09............................................................................... 177

Municipal finance............................................................................................................ 178

Financial results for all district municipalities........................................................ 178

Operating and capital revenue and expenditure by district
 municipality, 2006/07........................................................................ 178

Financial data for six metropolitan and two district municipalities.................. 180

Breakdown of financial outcomes, 2006/07...................................... 180

Income and expenditure, 2008/09–2009/10..................................... 181

Breakdown of capital revenue and expenditure, 2006/07.............. 183

Outstanding consumer debtors, as at 31 December 2006
 and 31 December 2007...................................................................... 184

Change in municipal debt, 2006–07.................................................... 184

Breakdown of total municipal debt by metro, 2006 and 2007...... 185

Financial data for the six metropolitans................................................................. 186

Breakdown of operating revenue, 2003/04–2009/10...................... 186

Breakdown of operating expenditure, 2003/04–2009/10............... 187

Metropolitans’ capital budgets, 2003/04–2009/10........................... 188

Summary of key revenue and expenditure trends,
 2003/04–2009/10............................................................................... 189

FORECASTS OF KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS, 2010–13.................................. 190

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The Economy.jpgMACRO-ECONOMIC PICTURE........................................................................................ 85

South Africa at a glance........................................................................... 85

LEADING INDICATORS....................................................................................................... 86

Local indicators................................................................................................................. 86

Major indicators, 1955–2008.................................................................. 86

Current account surplus/deficit as proportion of GDP,
 1955–2008.............................................................................................. 87

Further major indicators, 1993–2009.................................................... 88

Key indicators and forecasts, 2005–11................................................. 88

International comparisons.............................................................................................. 89

Key economic indicators and forecasts, selected countries............... 89

Spending, savings, and trade as proportion of GDP,
 selected countries, 2007........................................................................ 90

ECONOMIC PROFILE.......................................................................................................... 91

Gross domestic product.................................................................................................... 91

Real growth and income levels and trends, 1961–2008..................... 91

Real total gross domestic product, 1961–2008.................................... 92

Real annual economic growth, 1961–2008.......................................... 93

Real GDP and personal disposable income per capita,
 1961–2008.............................................................................................. 93

Real GDP per head, 1965–2008.............................................................. 94

Gross national income per capita, selected countries, 2007............... 94

Income and rankings, selected countries, 2007.................................... 95

Gross national income per capita, 2007, using purchasing
 power parity, selected countries.......................................................... 96

GDP per capita average annual growth, 1990–2005.......................... 96

Structure of GDP........................................................................................................... 97

Breakdown of gross value added by industry (proportions),
 1951–2008.............................................................................................. 97

Breakdown of gross value added by industry, 1951 and 2008...... 100

Provincial and local economies................................................................................ 101

Provincial economies..................................................................................... 101

Gross domestic product (GDP) by province, 2006–2011................. 101

GDP per head by province, 1996–2008.............................................. 101

Regional GDP by province and industry (actual numbers),
 2007....................................................................................................... 102

Regional GDP by province and industry, 2007 (proportions).......... 103

Regional GDP and GDP growth, 2007................................................. 108

Average annual economic growth, 1996–2007................................. 108

Economic growth of urban areas................................................................ 109

Economic indicators for 19 major urban areas................................. 109

Inflation and interest rates............................................................................................ 111

Inflation and interest rates, 1976–2008.............................................. 111

Inflation rates, 1976–2008.................................................................... 112

Interest rates, 1976–2008...................................................................... 112

CPI headline, 2009.................................................................................. 113

Components of CPI, 2009..................................................................... 114

CPI by province and area, 2009........................................................... 114

Group and product inflation for all urban areas, 2009..................... 115

Repurchase (repo) rate, dates of change............................................. 117

Saving................................................................................................................................. 118

Personal saving, household debt, and gross domestic
 saving, 1960–2008.............................................................................. 118

Gross domestic saving, 1960–2008...................................................... 119

Investment......................................................................................................................... 120

Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), 1960–2008.................. 120

Investment (GFCF) as a proportion of GDP, 1960–2008................ 121

Annual increase/decrease in investment, 1960–2008...................... 122

Investment by type of investment, 1998–2008................................ 122

Investment by type of investment (proportions), 1998 and 2008. 123

Investment by type of investor, 1960–2008...................................... 123

Private investment as proportion of total investment,
 1960–2008........................................................................................... 125

GFCF by kind of economic activity, 1960–2008.............................. 126

Foreign investment..................................................................................................... 126

Inward investment............................................................................................... 126

Foreign liabilities (foreign investment in South Africa),
 1956–2005........................................................................................... 126

Foreign liabilities (foreign investment in South Africa),
 1996–2007........................................................................................... 127

Foreign direct investment inflows, 1994–2008.................................. 127

Foreign liabilities (foreign investment in South Africa)
 by region at 31 December 2007........................................................ 128

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in South Africa by kind of
 economic activity as a proportion of total foreign direct
 investment, 1997 and 2007............................................................... 129

Outward investment............................................................................................. 129

Foreign assets (South African investment in other
 countries), 1975–2007........................................................................ 129

South Africa’s foreign assets by region at 31 December 2007........ 130

International comparisons.................................................................................. 131

FDI flows (inward) as proportion of GFCF,
 selected countries, 2005–2007.......................................................... 131

FDI stock as proportion of GDP, selected countries, 1990–2007... 132

The exchange rate........................................................................................................... 133

The rand/euro and rand/pound exchange rate,
 1990–2008........................................................................................... 133

The value of the rand in euros and pounds, 1990–2008................. 133

The rand/dollar and real effective exchange rates, 1970–2008..... 134

The value of the rand in dollars, 1970–2008..................................... 135

Weighting of 13 currencies in the ‘basket’ against which
 the rand is measured........................................................................... 136

Trade.................................................................................................................................. 136

South Africa’s chief trading partners, 2008........................................ 136

South Africa’s trade with the world, 2008........................................... 137

Imports to South Africa, 2008 (proportions)...................................... 138

Exports from South Africa, 2008 (proportions)................................. 138

Structure of exports and imports, 1990–2008................................... 139

Exports from South Africa, 1990–2008 (proportions)..................... 140

Imports to South Africa, 1990–2008 (proportions).......................... 140

Growth in export and import value, 1990–2007............................... 141

Growth in real value of exports, 1960–2004...................................... 142

Exports of goods and services as a proportion of GDP,
 selected countries, 1995 and 2007................................................... 142

Average London gold price, 1946–2008............................................. 143

Brent crude oil and platinum prices, 1981–2008............................... 145

Oil price, 1981–2008............................................................................... 146

PUBLIC FINANCE................................................................................................................ 146

Revenue and taxation..................................................................................................... 146

All tax revenues........................................................................................................... 146

Total tax revenue, 2002/03–2007/08.................................................. 146

National revenues....................................................................................................... 147

Government finance as a proportion of GDP, 1976–2012.............. 147

Income tax as a proportion of GDP, 1976–2012.............................. 148

Composition of national tax revenue, selected years,
 1984/85–2009/10............................................................................... 148

Tax revenue by main source, 1994/95 and 2007/08........................ 149

Tax revenue by main source as proportion of GDP,
 1994/95 and 2007/08......................................................................... 149

Number of registered taxpayers, 2002/03–2007/08......................... 150

Maximum marginal tax rates, 2002/03–2007/08............................. 150

Individual taxpayers............................................................................................ 151

Number of taxpayers, 2002/03–2007/08........................................... 151

Summary of taxable income and tax assessed, 2002/03–
 2005/06................................................................................................. 151

Taxable income and tax assessed by income group
 (numbers), 2003 and 2006................................................................ 152

Taxable income and tax assessed by income group
 (proportions), 2003 and 2006........................................................... 153

Taxable income and tax assessed by age group, and sex,
 2003 and 2006..................................................................................... 154

Tax assessed by economic activity, 2003 and 2006........................ 155

Tax assessed by source of income (proportion of total),
 2003–2006........................................................................................... 156

Taxable income and tax assessed by province, 2003 and 2006.... 157

Corporate taxpayers............................................................................................ 158

Taxable income and tax assessed by sector and economic
 activity, 2003 and 2006..................................................................... 158

Tax assessments, 2002/03–2007/08................................................... 160

Provincial and local revenues................................................................................... 160

Provincial and local government tax revenue, 2002/03–2007/08. 160

International comparisons........................................................................................ 161

Top personal income tax rates, selected countries, 1980–2006..... 161

Tax revenue, 2007, and business tax, selected countries,
 2007 and 2008..................................................................................... 162

Marginal tax rate, selected countries, 2006–08................................. 163

Budget 2008/2009............................................................................................................ 164

Breakdown of consolidated national and provincial
 spending by function and proportion.............................................. 164

Changes in consolidated national and provincial
 spending by function over seven years........................................... 165

Breakdown of consolidated national and provincial
 spending as a proportion of total spending..................................... 166

Key allocations as proportions of the budget, 2005/06–2011/12.. 167

Major spending components................................................................. 167

Major spending components, 2005/06 and 2009/10
 (proportions)......................................................................................... 168

Public sector infrastructure expenditure and estimates,
 2005/06–2011/12............................................................................... 168

Key indicators and forecasts, 2005–11............................................... 169

Division of revenue between spheres of government,
 2008/09–2011/12............................................................................... 169

Deficit............................................................................................................................ 170

Budget deficit/surplus (actual and projected), 1995/96–2011/12. 170

Budget balance as a proportion of GDP, selected countries,
 2009....................................................................................................... 171

Public debt.................................................................................................................... 172

Total debt of government, 1982–2012............................................... 172

Foreign debt as proportion of GDP, 1982–2012................................ 173

Government debt as proportion of GDP, 1982–2012....................... 173

Provincial budgets........................................................................................................... 174

Consolidated budgets................................................................................................. 174

Summary of expenditure outcomes by province,
 2007/08–2008/09............................................................................... 174

Provincial own revenue collection, 2007/08–2008/09..................... 174

Provincial personnel expenditure, 2008/09......................................... 175

Provincial education expenditure, 2008/09........................................ 175

Provincial capital expenditure on education, 2008/09..................... 176

Provincial health expenditure, 2008/09............................................... 176

Provincial capital expenditure on health, 2008/09............................ 177

Provincial capital expenditure on health growth,
 2007/08–2008/09............................................................................... 177

Municipal finance............................................................................................................ 178

Financial results for all district municipalities........................................................ 178

Operating and capital revenue and expenditure by district
 municipality, 2006/07........................................................................ 178

Financial data for six metropolitan and two district municipalities.................. 180

Breakdown of financial outcomes, 2006/07...................................... 180

Income and expenditure, 2008/09–2009/10..................................... 181

Breakdown of capital revenue and expenditure, 2006/07.............. 183

Outstanding consumer debtors, as at 31 December 2006
 and 31 December 2007...................................................................... 184

Change in municipal debt, 2006–07.................................................... 184

Breakdown of total municipal debt by metro, 2006 and 2007...... 185

Financial data for the six metropolitans................................................................. 186

Breakdown of operating revenue, 2003/04–2009/10...................... 186

Breakdown of operating expenditure, 2003/04–2009/10............... 187

Metropolitans’ capital budgets, 2003/04–2009/10........................... 188

Summary of key revenue and expenditure trends,
 2003/04–2009/10............................................................................... 189

FORECASTS OF KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS, 2010–13.................................. 190

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